* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132011 11/22/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 98 99 98 94 84 75 63 51 39 27 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 98 99 98 94 84 75 63 51 39 27 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 99 98 94 89 80 71 63 55 47 39 32 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 3 4 9 11 15 12 13 24 30 19 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 10 11 11 10 9 9 5 6 2 3 11 2 SHEAR DIR 145 279 332 21 40 339 341 300 289 299 311 295 271 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.3 25.9 25.4 25.1 25.3 25.3 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 137 135 132 129 125 122 118 115 118 117 117 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.5 -54.1 -53.7 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 49 47 55 55 56 52 53 52 43 36 31 28 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 16 16 15 14 14 12 10 8 6 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 20 22 26 17 0 3 -1 4 0 -11 -41 -46 200 MB DIV 47 26 29 36 53 38 61 54 -1 -41 -33 -17 7 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 0 -2 -6 -8 2 6 4 9 11 7 LAND (KM) 1055 1133 1186 1217 1255 1314 1338 1397 1508 1686 1900 2090 2273 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.6 14.3 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 112.3 113.3 114.2 115.2 116.1 117.7 118.9 120.4 122.4 124.9 127.9 130.6 133.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 8 11 13 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 4 2 0 1 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -22. -28. -33. -37. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 3. -1. -11. -20. -32. -44. -56. -68. -81. -88. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132011 KENNETH 11/22/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132011 KENNETH 11/22/11 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##