* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992011 11/22/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 41 44 49 50 46 42 38 36 31 29 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 41 44 49 50 46 42 38 36 31 29 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 33 34 35 35 35 37 40 43 45 46 Storm Type SUBT SUBT TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 25 28 36 40 56 33 25 22 23 23 35 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 3 1 -1 -7 1 0 -2 0 2 6 4 SHEAR DIR 228 223 217 208 212 214 228 262 296 273 258 274 291 SST (C) 24.6 23.8 23.3 22.3 21.9 20.2 19.4 19.5 19.0 17.7 16.3 15.4 15.5 POT. INT. (KT) 104 100 97 93 91 83 75 75 75 74 74 74 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 95 92 90 87 85 77 68 68 69 69 71 71 71 200 MB T (C) -56.9 -57.3 -58.0 -58.5 -58.7 -59.5 -61.7 -61.2 -61.2 -61.2 -62.0 -62.7 -63.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 53 53 57 56 45 39 40 41 53 54 53 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 17 16 16 16 16 14 12 8 5 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 92 87 85 102 110 55 -20 -75 -114 -95 -115 -166 -176 200 MB DIV 78 87 87 88 90 53 40 -5 15 0 12 3 6 700-850 TADV 5 -10 1 -17 -38 -61 -13 3 18 10 3 28 71 LAND (KM) 1986 1908 1848 1854 1890 2037 1862 1914 1983 1880 1522 998 493 LAT (DEG N) 29.3 30.5 31.6 32.6 33.6 35.7 36.6 36.6 37.8 39.9 42.3 44.2 45.3 LONG(DEG W) 47.9 46.0 44.1 41.5 38.9 33.6 30.2 30.8 32.2 31.8 27.7 21.4 14.4 STM SPEED (KT) 16 20 22 24 24 19 6 5 9 14 22 25 25 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. -1. -7. -11. -13. -14. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 4. 6. 9. 15. 22. 27. 33. 39. 44. 48. 53. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 15. 11. 7. 3. 1. -4. -6. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992011 INVEST 11/22/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992011 INVEST 11/22/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992011 INVEST 11/22/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)