* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132011 11/22/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 129 127 120 111 90 75 59 42 30 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 125 129 127 120 111 90 75 59 42 30 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 125 127 121 111 102 87 75 64 53 43 34 27 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 5 10 11 11 7 10 20 30 32 19 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 14 15 12 14 18 14 20 11 4 5 8 0 SHEAR DIR 316 322 357 349 358 315 310 252 275 290 308 285 257 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.5 26.1 25.6 25.2 25.2 25.4 25.4 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 134 132 131 128 124 119 115 116 118 118 117 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.2 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -53.6 -54.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.3 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 47 52 52 54 52 52 51 45 39 35 34 27 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 17 16 16 14 14 12 9 8 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 26 27 31 22 10 6 9 12 9 -10 -31 -51 -34 200 MB DIV 30 34 31 56 51 46 31 37 -6 -29 -31 -25 -11 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 -1 -4 -5 0 2 4 8 6 8 7 LAND (KM) 1152 1197 1234 1263 1297 1365 1421 1497 1613 1794 1982 2186 2204 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.0 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.8 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.7 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.4 115.3 116.2 117.0 118.7 120.2 121.9 123.8 126.2 128.9 131.7 134.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 10 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 1 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -11. -16. -26. -37. -47. -56. -63. -68. -72. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 10. 14. 15. 13. 7. 2. -1. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -3. -6. -10. -11. -15. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 2. -5. -14. -35. -50. -66. -83. -95.-110.-122.-129. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132011 KENNETH 11/22/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 35.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132011 KENNETH 11/22/11 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##