* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132011 11/22/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 127 122 114 105 84 65 52 35 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 125 127 122 114 105 84 65 52 35 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 125 124 116 106 97 81 69 59 50 41 33 26 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 7 7 11 14 15 8 11 22 30 17 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 16 17 15 13 9 10 16 15 4 3 11 0 2 SHEAR DIR 304 12 355 353 343 339 320 291 281 298 285 272 246 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.3 25.8 25.3 25.3 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 133 132 129 126 121 116 117 120 119 118 115 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -54.0 -53.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.4 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 49 53 53 49 52 48 44 35 28 27 24 20 18 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 16 16 16 15 12 11 8 6 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 33 22 10 5 13 13 30 22 7 -22 -32 -25 200 MB DIV 20 25 58 51 68 33 34 -7 -45 -37 -41 0 9 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -5 -12 -7 0 2 2 4 6 7 8 LAND (KM) 1235 1271 1314 1343 1380 1445 1513 1614 1764 1949 2143 2303 2043 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.7 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.9 14.3 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.8 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 114.4 115.4 116.3 117.3 118.3 119.9 121.5 123.4 125.5 128.0 130.8 133.4 135.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 9 8 9 10 11 13 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 2 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -16. -27. -38. -48. -57. -64. -68. -72. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -4. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -6. -8. -12. -14. -17. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. -3. -11. -20. -41. -60. -73. -90.-102.-114.-125.-131. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132011 KENNETH 11/22/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132011 KENNETH 11/22/11 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##