* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132011 11/23/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 108 100 93 86 70 58 46 32 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 115 108 100 93 86 70 58 46 32 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 115 106 97 89 81 68 57 47 39 31 25 20 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 14 15 16 12 11 21 27 35 26 25 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 16 20 16 11 15 13 10 3 0 0 7 1 0 SHEAR DIR 323 337 346 339 324 283 278 285 281 301 277 266 243 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.1 25.7 25.3 25.1 25.3 25.4 25.3 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 131 130 128 123 119 115 115 118 119 116 111 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -54.3 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 52 53 51 52 52 52 51 49 45 45 43 44 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 17 17 18 14 13 13 12 8 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 33 22 8 0 0 0 -15 -22 -37 -54 -63 -52 -30 200 MB DIV 9 59 24 66 56 44 60 -7 -19 -17 -19 -4 -2 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -8 -16 -10 -2 2 3 8 5 8 3 8 LAND (KM) 1284 1312 1346 1365 1389 1439 1462 1522 1654 1880 2169 2256 2114 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.3 13.6 14.2 14.8 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.6 16.0 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 115.3 116.3 117.2 118.0 118.8 120.2 121.4 122.7 124.6 127.5 131.4 133.8 135.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 8 12 16 15 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 2 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -13. -23. -32. -42. -49. -55. -60. -63. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -6. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -4. -5. -6. -8. -12. -15. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -22. -29. -45. -57. -69. -83. -99.-113.-124.-130. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132011 KENNETH 11/23/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132011 KENNETH 11/23/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##