* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132011 11/23/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 90 82 75 68 58 48 35 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 90 82 75 68 58 48 35 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 89 81 74 68 57 49 41 34 27 22 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 12 15 21 14 8 12 22 34 35 24 24 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 22 17 14 9 9 14 10 2 -1 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 310 343 341 336 330 277 272 281 299 318 289 258 247 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.0 25.5 25.2 25.4 25.6 25.4 25.3 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 130 129 126 122 118 116 118 121 118 117 114 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -54.3 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 52 51 51 50 50 51 49 45 42 38 39 32 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 16 16 15 13 12 9 7 5 3 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 1 -8 -15 -11 -18 -11 -26 -42 -67 -60 -48 -13 200 MB DIV 33 45 64 52 62 46 0 -50 -36 -16 -8 -11 -7 700-850 TADV -2 -7 -16 -15 -9 -1 2 5 2 4 3 4 1 LAND (KM) 1323 1349 1381 1391 1408 1436 1511 1652 1864 2051 2242 2149 1918 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.5 13.9 14.5 14.8 14.9 14.9 15.2 15.6 16.1 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 116.1 117.0 117.9 118.7 119.4 120.6 122.1 124.1 126.7 129.5 132.3 134.8 136.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 7 7 8 11 13 14 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 2 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -23. -30. -37. -41. -45. -48. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE -7. -10. -11. -11. -8. -6. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -18. -25. -32. -42. -52. -65. -77. -90.-100.-109.-114. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132011 KENNETH 11/23/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132011 KENNETH 11/23/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##