* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132011 11/23/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 79 70 61 57 47 37 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 79 70 61 57 47 37 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 80 72 66 61 52 45 38 31 25 20 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 25 20 14 10 17 27 36 34 29 38 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 18 14 4 6 9 7 4 3 0 -1 -3 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 338 336 339 335 331 296 289 277 301 304 261 258 267 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.3 25.7 25.3 25.5 25.7 25.5 25.3 25.1 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 129 127 126 120 117 119 122 120 117 114 111 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -54.8 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 52 51 50 49 51 50 50 47 46 42 35 26 23 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 16 16 15 16 13 12 8 6 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -8 -19 -14 -11 -16 -15 -40 -55 -61 -50 -15 43 200 MB DIV 40 61 36 55 51 16 -45 -26 -22 -3 -1 -8 0 700-850 TADV -7 -13 -15 -13 -5 4 2 6 2 5 2 3 0 LAND (KM) 1357 1380 1409 1432 1460 1524 1676 1861 2038 2224 2139 1876 1690 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.4 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.4 16.1 16.6 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 116.9 117.8 118.6 119.4 120.1 121.8 124.0 126.5 129.0 131.9 134.9 137.3 139.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 9 12 12 13 14 13 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -17. -23. -28. -32. -35. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -6. -10. -11. -11. -9. -7. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -13. -16. -19. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -20. -28. -33. -43. -53. -67. -77. -89. -97.-104.-109. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132011 KENNETH 11/23/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132011 KENNETH 11/23/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##