* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132011 11/23/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 48 39 34 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 48 39 34 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 48 40 35 31 26 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 22 18 13 14 15 26 37 35 26 35 50 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 7 7 14 13 8 0 0 0 -1 0 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 337 341 339 337 306 293 275 299 318 281 255 260 256 SST (C) 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.1 25.8 25.4 25.3 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.2 24.9 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 127 124 121 117 117 120 120 118 116 111 108 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -54.5 -54.4 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 50 46 50 51 47 44 40 36 31 30 26 23 21 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 14 16 14 13 10 7 6 4 4 6 10 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -17 -11 -11 -10 -1 -4 -22 -47 -39 -22 26 59 200 MB DIV 59 40 68 73 56 -6 -31 -10 -16 -18 -13 -25 0 700-850 TADV -13 -15 -14 -10 -1 2 5 2 4 4 2 16 15 LAND (KM) 1400 1432 1469 1492 1513 1622 1797 1992 2191 2230 1931 1690 1535 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.8 16.5 17.0 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 118.2 119.1 119.9 120.7 121.5 123.4 125.9 128.6 131.4 134.1 136.8 139.0 140.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 11 13 13 14 13 12 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -14. -16. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE -9. -15. -18. -19. -18. -16. -14. -11. -10. -10. -7. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -2. -3. -7. -11. -13. -15. -17. -13. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -12. -21. -26. -32. -39. -49. -59. -65. -71. -78. -81. -78. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132011 KENNETH 11/23/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -40.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132011 KENNETH 11/23/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##