* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132011 11/24/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 47 41 35 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 47 41 35 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 46 39 35 32 27 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 14 14 15 22 31 45 38 31 38 50 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 9 15 11 11 3 4 -2 2 -3 1 -13 -2 SHEAR DIR 346 329 334 301 297 269 271 315 306 280 271 272 251 SST (C) 26.5 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.6 25.3 25.6 25.6 25.4 25.3 25.2 25.2 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 124 121 119 117 121 120 118 115 113 112 112 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 -54.6 -54.2 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 45 50 50 46 48 47 38 35 34 33 30 33 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 14 15 13 13 11 9 6 4 4 3 7 13 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -15 -15 -18 -13 1 -18 -25 -44 -32 -14 34 51 200 MB DIV 30 72 65 47 34 -21 -7 -7 -39 -44 -24 23 24 700-850 TADV -14 -12 -9 0 2 4 5 3 5 4 5 3 7 LAND (KM) 1450 1492 1525 1551 1581 1699 1920 2089 2250 2183 2029 1931 1845 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.6 14.7 15.1 15.6 16.0 16.3 16.5 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 119.3 120.2 121.0 121.8 122.5 124.4 127.2 129.9 132.4 134.5 135.9 136.8 137.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 11 14 13 11 8 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -12. -16. -18. -20. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE -7. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -11. -9. -9. -9. -6. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -5. -8. -13. -15. -15. -16. -11. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -20. -25. -34. -45. -55. -62. -68. -75. -75. -68. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132011 KENNETH 11/24/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132011 KENNETH 11/24/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##