* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132011 11/24/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 41 37 33 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 46 41 37 33 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 46 43 39 36 30 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 12 11 12 13 26 35 41 31 38 39 39 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 15 14 12 10 6 3 0 2 -6 -4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 335 340 290 281 279 259 293 319 298 284 278 279 269 SST (C) 26.3 26.0 25.7 25.5 25.3 25.3 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.9 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 126 123 119 117 115 117 121 120 119 119 119 120 119 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.3 -54.6 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 4 5 5 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 54 53 48 49 46 41 35 33 37 37 41 41 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 13 12 12 10 7 6 4 3 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -15 -23 -21 -7 -14 -18 -37 -41 -34 1 20 19 200 MB DIV 55 45 34 17 4 -24 -12 -17 -43 -20 4 -13 2 700-850 TADV -10 -6 1 1 2 5 3 3 4 2 4 4 4 LAND (KM) 1491 1509 1531 1563 1599 1731 1956 2135 2326 2186 2029 1934 1873 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.8 14.8 15.1 15.2 14.9 14.8 14.6 14.4 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 120.3 121.1 121.9 122.6 123.3 125.0 128.1 130.6 132.7 134.8 136.4 137.4 138.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 8 12 14 11 10 9 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -11. -14. -17. -19. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -13. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -17. -28. -39. -48. -55. -60. -64. -68. -71. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132011 KENNETH 11/24/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132011 KENNETH 11/24/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##