* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132011 11/24/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 45 42 37 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 48 45 42 37 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 48 45 43 40 34 28 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 6 9 17 27 40 34 27 38 39 35 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 19 17 16 10 8 5 0 3 1 -6 -5 0 1 SHEAR DIR 351 321 261 267 260 267 316 319 285 284 271 270 259 SST (C) 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.5 25.4 25.6 26.0 25.9 25.6 25.7 26.0 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 124 121 119 118 117 120 124 123 120 120 122 121 121 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 50 50 47 46 44 37 37 38 37 37 45 47 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 12 12 12 9 8 6 5 5 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -23 -19 -2 -1 -10 -14 -31 -21 -9 16 11 -5 200 MB DIV 39 45 39 19 -3 -14 -14 -33 -30 22 21 3 -7 700-850 TADV -5 0 1 0 0 2 3 2 0 5 6 9 7 LAND (KM) 1549 1580 1614 1678 1746 1920 2127 2314 2285 2067 1899 1798 1714 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.1 14.0 14.0 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 121.1 121.9 122.6 123.5 124.4 126.6 129.2 131.7 134.1 136.2 137.9 138.9 139.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 12 13 12 11 9 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 732 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -8. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -18. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. -12. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -13. -25. -34. -43. -49. -55. -59. -63. -68. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132011 KENNETH 11/24/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132011 KENNETH 11/24/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##