* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132011 11/24/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 32 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 36 32 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 36 32 29 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 6 11 20 23 33 39 29 29 32 35 30 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 17 19 13 8 8 2 2 2 -1 -3 0 4 3 SHEAR DIR 270 260 254 254 259 297 317 292 277 279 276 269 278 SST (C) 26.0 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.9 26.0 25.7 25.6 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 123 120 119 118 119 123 125 121 120 122 122 121 120 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.9 -54.5 -54.9 -54.5 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 46 48 47 46 41 43 39 39 41 42 38 33 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 11 9 9 6 6 6 6 6 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -15 -10 -11 -13 -14 -37 -34 -23 8 25 26 4 200 MB DIV 43 54 33 20 -2 -21 -20 -46 -24 24 8 -8 -25 700-850 TADV 0 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 4 8 LAND (KM) 1618 1668 1720 1785 1854 2057 2269 2378 2143 1927 1771 1668 1599 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.8 13.7 13.8 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 121.9 122.7 123.5 124.5 125.5 128.0 130.8 133.3 135.6 137.7 139.3 140.3 141.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 13 13 12 11 9 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -6. -10. -12. -15. -16. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. -20. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -19. -29. -39. -46. -50. -53. -57. -58. -61. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132011 KENNETH 11/24/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132011 KENNETH 11/24/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##