* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132011 11/25/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 30 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 35 30 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 36 32 28 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 15 21 24 28 42 29 28 30 33 29 29 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 13 9 7 7 -1 6 0 -2 -2 3 2 N/A SHEAR DIR 257 244 250 254 266 314 297 286 276 262 270 269 N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.7 26.1 25.7 25.5 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 119 119 119 121 126 122 119 122 122 123 122 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.9 -54.7 -54.8 -54.5 -54.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 46 47 44 39 44 40 43 46 48 47 46 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 11 11 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -11 -6 -9 -17 -20 -36 -24 -1 3 -8 -23 N/A 200 MB DIV 44 25 21 3 -5 -22 -28 -34 32 35 0 -9 N/A 700-850 TADV 7 6 4 1 -2 -1 -2 0 1 0 2 3 N/A LAND (KM) 1672 1738 1808 1901 1998 2218 2423 2157 1945 1806 1687 1600 N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.7 123.7 124.7 126.0 127.2 130.0 132.9 135.5 137.6 139.0 140.2 141.3 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 13 14 13 12 8 6 6 5 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -18. -19. -21. -21. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -23. -34. -45. -52. -57. -61. -65. -69. -70. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132011 KENNETH 11/25/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132011 KENNETH 11/25/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##