* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902011 11/30/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 39 40 42 41 38 35 26 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 39 40 42 41 38 35 26 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 36 36 35 35 34 33 30 29 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 41 32 26 27 23 19 43 59 84 79 73 75 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -2 2 1 -3 0 7 7 0 8 6 1 9 SHEAR DIR 262 285 284 280 282 234 205 210 218 232 241 255 273 SST (C) 26.9 26.6 26.3 25.8 25.2 23.7 22.4 21.4 14.3 7.2 12.8 12.5 13.1 POT. INT. (KT) 124 121 118 113 108 98 92 88 72 68 72 72 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 111 108 102 98 89 83 80 69 67 69 70 72 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.7 -55.0 -56.9 -57.2 -59.3 -61.1 -61.8 -62.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 50 47 51 49 46 35 40 47 32 31 32 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 11 12 10 8 9 10 9 8 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 82 77 70 53 41 52 73 28 41 -13 -115 -160 -145 200 MB DIV 74 85 59 56 76 105 55 93 65 35 27 -9 -9 700-850 TADV 30 30 19 19 14 7 -16 -34 -114 -98 -4 46 77 LAND (KM) 885 965 1060 1169 1284 1444 1129 847 500 499 950 1552 907 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 24.4 25.7 27.1 28.4 31.5 35.1 38.5 42.2 45.2 47.1 48.5 48.3 LONG(DEG W) 58.9 59.1 59.2 59.4 59.5 59.2 58.1 56.3 52.9 47.0 40.2 31.9 21.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 14 14 17 19 21 24 26 27 31 35 HEAT CONTENT 21 13 10 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 10 CX,CY: 1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -8. -18. -28. -36. -42. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 20. 25. 30. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -18. -22. -25. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 3. 0. -8. -15. -21. -27. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902011 INVEST 11/30/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902011 INVEST 11/30/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902011 INVEST 11/30/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)