* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902011 11/30/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 38 38 36 35 30 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 38 38 36 35 30 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 34 34 33 33 32 31 29 27 27 29 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 34 28 30 24 18 30 54 80 93 91 97 88 75 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -4 -2 3 6 -3 13 8 -8 -1 6 SHEAR DIR 272 279 280 280 261 224 211 214 222 235 248 268 284 SST (C) 26.6 26.2 25.6 24.9 24.1 22.7 21.6 15.4 5.8 12.4 11.6 13.4 15.3 POT. INT. (KT) 121 117 112 106 101 93 89 74 69 73 73 75 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 107 102 96 91 85 81 71 69 71 71 73 75 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -55.6 -56.8 -57.4 -59.8 -60.0 -59.9 -59.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 51 52 53 48 38 38 47 49 34 34 42 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 9 7 7 10 9 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 72 56 44 42 71 31 42 42 -60 -117 -112 -82 200 MB DIV 95 69 61 78 106 98 99 123 63 21 5 -18 -46 700-850 TADV 31 21 30 23 17 9 -28 -121 -205 -213 -143 -34 -6 LAND (KM) 1007 1109 1224 1366 1514 1202 883 533 416 1017 1285 548 151 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 26.1 27.5 29.1 30.6 34.2 38.0 41.9 46.2 49.1 50.0 49.2 46.9 LONG(DEG W) 58.7 58.9 59.1 59.1 59.1 58.4 56.7 53.6 47.7 39.1 28.4 16.6 5.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 15 15 17 19 22 26 31 33 37 38 38 HEAT CONTENT 13 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 12 CX,CY: 1/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -9. -21. -32. -42. -51. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 10. 16. 21. 25. 28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -15. -19. -23. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -6. -4. -5. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -5. -12. -21. -30. -36. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902011 INVEST 11/30/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902011 INVEST 11/30/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902011 INVEST 11/30/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)