* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902011 12/01/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 38 36 33 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 38 36 33 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 34 34 34 34 32 29 26 25 25 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 21 20 23 28 46 68 84 96 89 83 73 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -5 1 7 4 3 6 10 9 0 12 N/A SHEAR DIR 287 285 266 245 232 207 221 226 240 250 273 282 N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.2 24.5 23.7 23.1 21.8 18.1 6.7 12.7 12.5 14.5 16.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 109 104 99 96 90 79 70 75 75 77 79 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 98 94 90 87 82 75 69 73 73 74 76 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -54.4 -56.9 -57.3 -59.2 -60.0 -60.0 -59.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 47 49 47 37 29 36 53 39 31 28 35 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 13 13 7 5 8 8 7 5 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 64 53 55 76 39 -28 15 -43 -70 -102 -60 N/A 200 MB DIV 69 60 77 124 112 47 85 42 32 -9 -41 -41 N/A 700-850 TADV 23 19 22 18 27 -26 -17 -77 -208 -169 -88 -50 N/A LAND (KM) 1114 1244 1382 1415 1244 941 644 423 1072 1091 497 19 N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.8 28.3 29.8 31.6 33.3 37.2 40.9 45.0 48.5 49.2 47.3 44.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.9 60.1 60.3 60.0 59.6 57.5 54.0 48.2 38.4 25.1 12.0 1.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 16 18 19 22 26 34 40 44 42 39 N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 19 CX,CY: -4/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 750 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 1. -10. -23. -35. -44. -52. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 14. 20. 24. 27. 28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -16. -21. -25. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -8. -6. -7. -8. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. -2. -5. -14. -22. -29. -35. -35. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902011 INVEST 12/01/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902011 INVEST 12/01/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902011 INVEST 12/01/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)