* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902011 12/01/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 40 38 38 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 40 38 38 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 33 32 28 23 21 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 32 46 50 63 74 96 102 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 11 13 13 10 1 -4 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 215 222 224 223 235 247 262 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.9 22.1 21.6 19.3 13.6 7.2 11.4 11.4 12.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 96 91 90 82 73 70 74 74 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 89 84 82 77 70 69 72 72 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.5 -53.8 -54.2 -55.3 -57.8 -60.5 -59.8 -58.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 39 36 33 33 43 59 70 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 15 14 12 5 7 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 72 67 22 -13 -39 -38 -21 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 100 107 92 65 72 38 56 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 46 37 73 74 20 -5 -100 -67 -63 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1142 969 779 689 466 538 1147 936 -66 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.3 36.5 38.6 40.6 42.5 46.1 49.6 52.0 52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.6 58.8 58.0 55.6 53.2 46.1 37.3 24.0 8.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 22 24 27 29 33 39 46 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 25 CX,CY: 0/ 25 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 6. 9. 9. 3. -14. -31. -43. -52. -59. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 30. 31. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -19. -24. -28. -31. -34. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -7. -7. -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. 3. -4. -21. -31. -39. -46. -53. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902011 INVEST 12/01/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902011 INVEST 12/01/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902011 INVEST 12/01/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)