* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEST EP812011 12/09/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 44 36 31 39 45 48 44 48 51 56 57 51 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 17 22 22 14 10 5 10 6 10 3 -3 8 8 SHEAR DIR 255 247 249 255 269 278 254 268 268 277 280 273 278 SST (C) 25.3 25.1 25.0 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.1 24.9 24.6 24.4 24.0 23.0 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 113 113 112 112 113 114 112 109 107 107 104 95 83 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.1 -55.7 -55.6 -55.9 -55.8 -56.3 -56.6 -57.1 -57.8 -58.3 -58.1 -58.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 65 69 69 65 62 61 55 54 53 46 46 36 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 3 2 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -33 -36 -38 -50 -48 -63 -62 -69 -60 -38 -46 -56 200 MB DIV 95 92 87 39 15 3 8 3 -25 -41 -13 0 -4 700-850 TADV 6 6 2 3 2 5 3 4 -3 -3 -5 -14 -14 LAND (KM) 2315 2247 2181 2122 2065 1978 1917 1894 1940 2068 2131 1744 1295 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 11.0 11.5 12.2 12.9 14.3 15.5 16.3 17.0 17.4 18.0 19.3 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 135.4 135.8 136.2 136.5 136.7 137.0 137.2 137.2 136.6 135.3 132.9 129.4 125.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 7 7 7 7 5 4 5 9 15 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 12. 15. 16. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 0. -2. -8. -15. -23. -31. -38. -42. -45. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -17. -18. -19. -18. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -7. -13. -25. -37. -49. -61. -69. -75. -80. -87. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP812011 TEST 12/09/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP812011 TEST 12/09/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##