* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902012 02/05/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 34 29 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 34 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 31 42 50 53 63 88 87 89 80 88 70 58 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 3 -5 -22 -10 -14 -5 -24 -21 -4 -9 SHEAR DIR 228 224 240 246 238 245 268 278 299 306 322 326 320 SST (C) 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.0 25.5 23.5 23.7 22.8 21.9 20.9 20.7 21.6 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 116 116 115 113 109 97 100 96 92 88 85 85 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 103 103 102 99 89 94 91 89 85 80 77 78 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.7 -56.2 -56.9 -56.1 -55.1 -56.5 -57.2 -59.0 -59.4 -60.1 -60.6 -60.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 4 3 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 56 56 57 57 56 54 58 57 61 65 60 56 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 6 6 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -14 -8 -8 -4 -30 -34 -55 -97 -80 -96 -96 -99 200 MB DIV 96 55 30 3 -22 -64 -29 -14 -9 3 -19 -64 -10 700-850 TADV 1 -1 0 4 2 5 8 23 26 38 26 6 3 LAND (KM) 92 71 70 67 95 9 258 781 1122 1514 1756 1913 2043 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.3 22.7 23.2 23.7 25.1 26.8 28.3 29.5 30.8 30.9 29.7 28.3 LONG(DEG W) 85.7 85.3 84.9 84.2 83.4 81.2 77.5 72.3 66.2 59.3 52.5 49.6 48.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 9 11 15 22 25 29 30 21 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 29 28 26 24 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 17. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 2. -4. -18. -40. -57. -73. -82. -86. -90. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 8. 10. 11. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 9. 4. -8. -25. -40. -53. -59. -63. -69. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902012 INVEST 02/05/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 47.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902012 INVEST 02/05/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902012 INVEST 02/05/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)