* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902012 02/06/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 31 31 26 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 31 31 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 22 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 42 50 53 63 75 94 93 86 85 76 75 66 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 3 -5 -14 -30 -20 -11 -15 -11 -9 13 12 SHEAR DIR 224 240 245 238 244 257 278 288 289 291 282 259 248 SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.2 25.3 24.0 23.5 21.4 21.1 20.5 20.0 19.6 19.2 15.1 POT. INT. (KT) 115 115 115 109 101 99 88 86 84 82 81 80 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 102 104 100 95 95 83 80 78 77 76 74 69 200 MB T (C) -56.8 -56.0 -56.6 -56.2 -55.8 -55.8 -57.1 -58.9 -59.0 -59.3 -59.9 -61.0 -61.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 3 1 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 56 57 56 58 62 63 59 66 62 59 56 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -8 -7 -5 -10 -43 -36 -73 -46 -23 -28 -14 -12 200 MB DIV 56 29 0 -22 -35 -65 -14 -8 18 31 26 56 52 700-850 TADV -1 0 3 2 1 11 17 35 22 -5 -36 -73 -64 LAND (KM) 76 65 60 123 137 230 660 818 1100 1151 1181 972 697 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 9 13 19 24 22 19 19 20 20 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 26 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 2. -4. -19. -42. -60. -75. -84. -88. -94. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 12. 9. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 17. 21. 26. 31. 34. 38. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 6. 1. -10. -27. -42. -53. -59. -63. -64. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902012 INVEST 02/06/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 56.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902012 INVEST 02/06/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902012 INVEST 02/06/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)