* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012012 05/14/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 43 47 43 39 35 32 25 19 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 43 47 43 39 35 32 25 19 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 39 39 37 33 29 25 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 8 9 11 20 14 16 17 22 24 26 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 8 9 5 13 12 9 5 2 4 3 SHEAR DIR 163 152 154 229 252 291 285 256 240 245 271 283 250 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.1 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 158 156 154 151 145 138 135 133 131 129 128 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 65 67 64 60 60 58 49 46 40 37 32 31 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 13 13 13 13 13 15 13 13 12 12 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 42 48 45 46 44 39 30 28 35 42 52 52 49 200 MB DIV 36 59 65 35 12 31 17 -10 -28 -33 -32 -38 -27 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 0 -1 -1 -4 -4 -2 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1002 1031 1065 1110 1149 1269 1391 1442 1485 1535 1592 1649 1696 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.8 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.4 LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.9 108.8 109.8 110.7 112.8 114.8 116.5 117.8 118.9 120.0 120.9 121.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 9 10 10 10 7 6 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 55 53 53 57 65 77 46 25 21 26 16 8 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 14. 20. 24. 26. 28. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -20. -21. -23. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 4. 4. 3. 4. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 17. 13. 9. 5. 2. -5. -11. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012012 ONE 05/14/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012012 ONE 05/14/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##