* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP012012 05/15/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 45 47 49 46 39 34 28 20 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 45 47 49 46 39 34 28 20 15 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 40 42 44 45 44 41 36 31 26 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 8 9 12 17 15 23 24 23 22 23 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 8 8 6 12 8 5 1 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 177 165 217 238 264 270 243 229 229 243 252 272 247 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.2 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 154 152 151 146 138 134 133 131 130 127 123 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.8 -53.7 -54.3 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 67 68 61 58 60 55 51 46 46 44 40 38 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 13 13 12 11 9 9 9 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 47 48 42 36 32 21 6 2 2 7 1 5 0 200 MB DIV 52 49 54 32 37 2 14 -18 -27 -17 -46 -46 -28 700-850 TADV 4 0 -1 -2 0 -1 -4 -3 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1011 1049 1091 1138 1194 1320 1402 1458 1531 1573 1610 1656 1682 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.4 11.7 11.9 11.9 12.1 12.5 12.7 12.9 LONG(DEG W) 108.0 109.0 110.0 111.1 112.1 114.1 116.1 117.5 118.7 119.6 120.6 121.5 122.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 6 5 5 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 52 53 58 67 76 57 26 19 26 21 6 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 22. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -21. -23. -24. -25. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 11. 4. -1. -7. -15. -20. -24. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012012 ALETTA 05/15/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 4.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 35% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 29% is 11.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012012 ALETTA 05/15/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##