* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP012012 05/15/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 42 41 39 34 30 25 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 42 41 39 34 30 25 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 39 40 39 37 34 30 27 25 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 11 11 20 15 20 21 17 17 23 31 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 4 2 7 7 0 -3 -3 0 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 214 231 225 231 252 247 223 217 219 234 252 261 240 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.4 25.8 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 153 151 149 144 137 134 132 132 127 120 116 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -54.0 -54.7 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 69 62 62 61 60 55 50 46 48 47 42 40 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 12 11 10 10 9 9 7 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 39 33 27 25 21 13 2 7 5 7 12 7 2 200 MB DIV 54 60 52 59 59 18 12 -7 0 -34 -27 -9 2 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 -1 0 -4 -6 -1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 999 1048 1094 1142 1198 1337 1413 1472 1519 1605 1713 1790 1901 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 108.3 109.4 110.4 111.4 112.4 114.5 116.5 117.9 118.8 120.3 122.4 123.9 125.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 8 6 6 9 9 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 51 53 60 68 76 48 21 21 25 12 1 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 20. 21. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -19. -21. -23. -25. -26. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. -1. -5. -10. -16. -20. -26. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012012 ALETTA 05/15/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012012 ALETTA 05/15/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##