* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP012012 05/15/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 41 42 40 36 32 28 24 21 15 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 41 42 40 36 32 28 24 21 15 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 36 36 34 31 29 27 25 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 12 17 18 12 18 21 19 11 14 23 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 4 2 2 7 4 0 0 2 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 205 212 201 240 258 238 225 206 215 213 216 196 212 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.3 27.8 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 152 150 148 142 136 132 130 129 125 122 118 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -53.1 -52.8 -53.6 -53.4 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 64 62 61 60 55 48 49 46 42 43 36 36 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 34 33 31 27 22 17 16 22 27 27 18 9 3 200 MB DIV 61 65 69 78 50 22 11 9 10 5 -2 4 2 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 0 -5 -4 -4 0 0 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1037 1079 1121 1181 1249 1371 1424 1478 1525 1579 1623 1662 1708 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.3 LONG(DEG W) 109.1 110.1 111.0 112.1 113.2 115.2 116.9 118.3 119.4 120.4 121.4 122.3 123.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 10 9 7 7 5 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 52 56 65 75 73 36 18 22 17 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 12. 16. 19. 20. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -21. -21. -21. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -20. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012012 ALETTA 05/15/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012012 ALETTA 05/15/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##