* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP012012 05/15/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 47 48 50 49 44 42 40 38 32 24 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 47 48 50 49 44 42 40 38 32 24 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 45 45 44 43 41 40 39 38 36 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 17 18 9 13 9 15 13 15 17 29 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 3 2 8 6 3 0 -1 -1 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 218 201 232 253 231 215 217 205 191 190 181 181 192 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.5 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 150 149 145 138 133 130 128 126 124 122 121 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 62 60 59 56 53 50 43 42 43 40 36 29 24 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 13 12 12 11 10 11 11 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 30 29 27 23 24 28 32 32 35 39 35 31 25 200 MB DIV 62 70 74 59 47 37 11 -9 15 38 40 47 0 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -3 -5 -5 -4 -1 0 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1081 1126 1178 1242 1312 1392 1430 1464 1495 1505 1516 1522 1528 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.1 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.8 12.2 12.5 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 111.0 112.0 113.1 114.1 116.1 117.5 118.5 119.1 119.6 120.1 120.5 120.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 8 6 4 3 3 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 48 59 69 68 58 45 29 28 22 9 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -16. -17. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 9. 4. 2. 0. -2. -8. -16. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012012 ALETTA 05/15/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012012 ALETTA 05/15/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##