* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP012012 05/16/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 43 44 42 41 38 37 34 29 22 16 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 43 44 42 41 38 37 34 29 22 16 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 39 38 36 33 32 31 30 30 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 17 20 12 12 13 12 12 19 18 28 30 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 5 11 12 10 3 0 -2 -2 -4 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 196 222 242 233 212 202 216 203 175 165 176 183 181 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.1 25.8 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 145 144 142 136 130 127 126 125 121 118 115 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.6 -53.2 -52.3 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 63 59 56 51 51 47 42 37 37 30 24 19 15 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 13 13 12 14 13 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 25 25 21 21 25 41 51 63 71 74 61 36 25 200 MB DIV 78 91 58 39 46 30 3 1 6 34 34 0 -12 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -4 -7 -6 -5 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1069 1108 1156 1222 1287 1333 1344 1353 1374 1352 1318 1306 1326 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.8 13.1 13.0 13.4 14.1 14.6 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.6 112.5 113.5 114.4 115.9 117.0 117.6 117.8 118.0 118.4 118.8 119.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 8 7 4 2 1 3 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 41 47 50 52 44 37 27 24 25 21 7 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 2. 1. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -18. -24. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012012 ALETTA 05/16/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012012 ALETTA 05/16/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##