* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP012012 05/16/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 34 34 34 34 35 33 28 22 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 34 34 34 34 35 33 28 22 18 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 32 31 30 28 26 26 27 27 26 24 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 16 18 15 12 6 13 17 25 26 22 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 8 8 6 -3 -4 0 -2 0 -3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 223 217 190 201 205 198 179 142 158 170 172 169 161 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.9 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 143 140 137 132 131 128 124 122 119 118 119 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 59 55 53 51 51 49 45 46 43 39 33 30 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 9 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 23 24 27 32 38 46 43 33 30 20 9 7 22 200 MB DIV 48 36 34 45 49 40 4 1 43 43 20 11 7 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -3 -1 0 0 1 -1 -1 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 1142 1179 1218 1245 1249 1254 1244 1189 1121 1057 1012 967 967 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.5 14.2 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 112.2 112.8 113.4 114.0 114.5 115.3 115.5 115.4 115.4 115.1 114.8 114.5 114.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 3 2 3 3 2 2 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 48 51 51 46 39 30 25 14 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -2. -7. -13. -17. -20. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012012 ALETTA 05/16/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012012 ALETTA 05/16/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##