* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP012012 05/16/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 39 41 43 42 38 33 28 26 28 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 39 41 43 42 38 33 28 26 28 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 34 34 34 35 35 35 34 33 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 17 14 10 12 11 16 22 24 20 18 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 9 10 6 4 -3 -2 2 -2 -1 -3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 190 184 182 178 169 189 156 156 156 148 146 149 123 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 141 138 137 133 130 129 129 129 127 125 124 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 55 52 49 53 52 52 51 50 47 42 37 32 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 11 10 10 10 10 9 7 5 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 28 31 37 40 47 46 41 40 19 13 6 18 43 200 MB DIV 39 36 34 47 64 33 14 37 49 38 17 17 12 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 1242 1269 1299 1295 1287 1264 1195 1146 1124 1083 1027 995 971 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.7 13.3 13.6 13.6 13.8 14.2 14.4 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 113.1 113.7 114.3 114.6 114.9 115.3 115.1 114.7 114.2 113.7 113.3 113.0 112.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 54 51 45 42 39 32 20 17 23 23 15 14 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 3. -2. -7. -9. -7. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012012 ALETTA 05/16/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012012 ALETTA 05/16/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##