* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP012012 05/17/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 25 24 23 22 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 25 24 23 22 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 25 22 20 19 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 16 17 21 14 20 24 23 30 31 31 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 2 -2 -4 0 1 0 3 -4 -4 -6 6 SHEAR DIR 192 192 193 186 194 193 170 170 165 137 135 122 138 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 137 136 134 132 131 131 131 134 137 140 142 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 52 53 50 55 54 55 52 48 44 40 44 50 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 4 4 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 26 31 35 36 19 1 -11 -10 -3 57 99 112 200 MB DIV 27 10 16 12 13 29 32 13 34 49 76 62 113 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 2 8 14 3 LAND (KM) 1337 1329 1316 1285 1255 1182 1122 1076 1014 969 947 924 904 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.2 13.5 13.7 13.8 13.5 13.1 12.8 12.6 LONG(DEG W) 114.5 114.8 115.1 115.1 115.1 114.6 113.9 113.2 112.5 111.7 111.0 110.3 109.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 45 40 36 31 26 23 26 26 21 22 24 26 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -14. -19. -22. -24. -20. -16. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012012 ALETTA 05/17/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012012 ALETTA 05/17/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##