* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP012012 05/17/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 25 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 25 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 26 24 23 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 16 18 21 20 20 23 26 24 28 25 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 -2 -4 -2 -3 -2 -1 -3 0 -3 6 3 SHEAR DIR 195 194 183 191 198 180 180 164 161 146 139 156 141 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 136 135 133 132 128 130 132 133 133 134 137 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 -52.4 -52.7 -51.9 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 52 51 54 53 52 49 47 41 36 35 38 45 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 20 21 27 30 12 9 -6 -6 0 30 62 114 200 MB DIV -2 -2 0 7 15 2 7 14 13 26 54 110 79 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 0 2 8 7 7 LAND (KM) 1320 1310 1301 1271 1240 1182 1099 1101 1101 1081 1056 1070 1078 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.2 13.8 13.6 13.4 13.2 13.1 12.9 12.6 LONG(DEG W) 114.7 114.9 115.0 115.0 115.0 114.6 114.1 113.6 113.2 112.8 112.4 112.4 112.2 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 39 37 34 31 26 22 14 24 31 33 30 34 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 20. 21. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -17. -23. -27. -27. -27. -25. -23. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012012 ALETTA 05/17/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012012 ALETTA 05/17/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##