* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP012012 05/18/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 32 31 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 32 31 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 27 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 24 25 26 28 24 23 25 28 23 21 24 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 1 0 0 0 0 -4 -5 -2 4 4 1 SHEAR DIR 186 183 184 181 181 179 162 148 150 126 131 124 108 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 128 127 126 127 129 133 137 140 141 140 140 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -51.8 -52.1 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 52 54 50 48 45 49 45 44 42 43 46 51 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 9 9 9 7 5 6 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 33 32 25 17 10 2 7 24 66 94 98 97 200 MB DIV -19 -9 10 29 26 3 -1 8 54 63 67 44 92 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 2 4 7 10 6 LAND (KM) 1153 1132 1112 1085 1058 1034 1035 1026 1039 1056 1089 1092 1091 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.2 14.0 13.5 12.9 12.4 12.0 11.8 11.9 LONG(DEG W) 114.4 114.4 114.4 114.3 114.1 113.5 112.9 112.4 112.0 111.7 111.7 111.5 111.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 3 3 2 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 10 6 3 2 2 9 15 22 28 34 41 44 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 19. 21. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 1. -4. -10. -16. -19. -20. -19. -16. -13. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012012 ALETTA 05/18/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012012 ALETTA 05/18/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##