* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP012012 05/18/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 28 26 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 28 26 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 27 26 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 25 23 23 26 26 28 29 25 23 18 24 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 4 0 -2 -2 -5 -2 0 5 3 5 SHEAR DIR 182 179 183 177 174 165 145 144 150 131 140 127 114 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 128 128 128 130 134 137 138 138 137 137 137 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -51.3 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 57 55 52 49 50 50 47 41 43 47 53 53 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 20 9 -1 -2 -3 -1 9 51 86 95 94 87 200 MB DIV -11 1 28 39 39 20 16 31 66 70 69 62 20 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 7 9 3 11 3 LAND (KM) 1101 1085 1069 1048 1027 1005 1016 1024 1018 1013 996 1002 1018 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.1 13.8 13.3 12.8 12.6 12.4 12.6 12.7 12.6 LONG(DEG W) 113.9 113.8 113.6 113.3 113.0 112.4 112.1 111.7 111.4 111.1 111.1 111.3 111.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 14 14 14 18 24 28 29 31 28 27 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -20. -23. -22. -20. -19. -16. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012012 ALETTA 05/18/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012012 ALETTA 05/18/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##