* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP012012 05/18/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 23 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 23 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 27 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 26 26 29 29 29 29 27 24 24 17 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 0 -3 -4 -9 -10 -8 -2 4 3 4 SHEAR DIR 180 182 178 174 177 158 144 138 138 132 152 142 127 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.5 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 129 129 129 131 136 138 138 138 138 137 137 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -52.4 -52.5 -51.4 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 55 50 49 51 52 47 43 43 44 46 48 48 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 11 0 0 -3 1 6 17 29 74 77 93 86 200 MB DIV 12 25 39 38 25 25 25 55 51 68 79 90 41 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -2 1 2 6 6 2 5 10 LAND (KM) 1041 1037 1035 1010 985 956 969 995 1004 1013 1002 1024 1054 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.1 14.0 14.1 14.1 13.9 13.2 12.7 12.5 12.4 12.7 12.8 12.7 LONG(DEG W) 113.4 113.2 112.9 112.7 112.4 111.9 111.4 111.2 111.1 111.1 111.3 111.7 112.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 2 2 3 4 2 1 1 2 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 13 16 19 19 19 22 28 33 35 36 33 33 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -8. -12. -14. -16. -15. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -9. -17. -25. -31. -33. -31. -29. -28. -26. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012012 ALETTA 05/18/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012012 ALETTA 05/18/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##