* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP012012 05/19/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 30 30 29 32 23 21 18 15 13 19 13 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 -2 -5 -7 -4 -6 -5 1 1 -1 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 184 179 177 174 170 159 145 136 143 131 131 159 N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.5 27.9 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 27.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 127 128 128 129 136 141 143 144 145 146 140 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.2 -52.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 50 51 48 45 42 37 35 38 39 44 44 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -2 -10 -9 -8 -1 7 18 38 50 48 54 N/A 200 MB DIV 41 29 22 18 23 24 26 31 48 62 38 -3 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 2 5 6 3 4 3 N/A LAND (KM) 995 1008 1020 1022 1024 1086 1155 1226 1242 1280 1327 1245 N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.3 14.1 14.0 13.9 12.9 12.2 11.4 11.3 11.2 10.9 12.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.3 113.1 112.8 112.8 112.7 112.6 112.8 112.9 113.0 113.4 113.7 114.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 2 1 3 4 4 2 1 2 3 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 12 18 20 22 42 55 64 64 62 60 42 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -21. -24. -23. -20. -17. -15. -13. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012012 ALETTA 05/19/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012012 ALETTA 05/19/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##