* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP012012 05/19/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 32 30 30 28 18 17 16 13 11 19 20 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -6 -5 -5 -1 -3 -2 0 2 0 -2 N/A SHEAR DIR 178 172 172 171 160 155 150 134 134 118 121 148 N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.7 28.1 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 27.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 128 129 130 132 138 143 145 145 145 146 140 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -52.5 -52.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 51 47 44 41 37 36 38 43 42 47 42 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -13 -12 -12 -7 0 16 34 40 27 39 24 N/A 200 MB DIV 25 16 15 29 34 26 34 25 49 28 23 0 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 1 4 7 5 2 2 3 N/A LAND (KM) 974 1001 1018 1031 1045 1117 1187 1251 1266 1304 1335 1254 N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.3 14.0 13.8 13.6 12.6 11.9 11.1 11.1 11.0 10.9 12.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.0 112.9 112.7 112.7 112.7 112.7 112.9 112.9 113.1 113.5 113.8 114.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 2 3 4 4 2 1 2 3 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 14 20 24 28 48 59 65 64 61 59 41 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -15. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -10. -16. -20. -23. -22. -19. -16. -15. -13. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012012 ALETTA 05/19/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012012 ALETTA 05/19/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##