* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP012012 05/19/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 22 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 33 31 26 24 21 17 13 8 18 24 20 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 -3 -2 -2 2 1 -4 -2 N/A SHEAR DIR 177 181 178 175 165 157 149 137 109 116 130 171 N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.8 28.1 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 127 130 133 140 143 146 145 144 142 136 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 8 8 7 6 6 N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 47 43 40 39 38 34 35 38 40 44 37 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -11 -11 -9 -2 9 19 30 25 10 -11 -11 N/A 200 MB DIV 22 20 19 36 25 37 31 38 28 10 -34 -18 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 1 2 6 6 2 2 2 4 N/A LAND (KM) 940 954 956 975 996 1101 1210 1312 1350 1429 1491 1373 N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.6 14.4 14.1 13.7 12.5 11.8 10.9 11.0 10.8 10.6 12.1 N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.6 112.5 112.3 112.3 112.2 112.4 113.1 113.5 114.1 114.9 115.6 116.3 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 3 3 4 5 8 N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 10 14 19 26 48 61 62 60 55 49 35 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -9. -14. -18. -19. -17. -13. -12. -13. -12. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012012 ALETTA 05/19/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012012 ALETTA 05/19/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##