* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012012 05/19/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 47 50 53 55 57 59 58 55 52 49 47 V (KT) LAND 40 44 47 50 53 55 57 59 58 55 52 49 47 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 47 49 50 53 55 57 57 56 54 51 49 Storm Type EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 36 39 29 23 30 23 25 25 38 53 37 20 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 -1 -3 -2 -6 -7 -13 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 236 235 243 239 238 253 246 255 249 244 240 275 330 SST (C) 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.7 24.6 24.1 23.2 22.8 22.6 22.5 20.0 16.7 POT. INT. (KT) 99 99 99 99 98 99 97 91 90 89 89 79 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 83 82 82 83 82 84 83 79 78 77 78 72 67 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -57.2 -57.0 -56.5 -55.9 -54.8 -55.0 -55.9 -56.5 -57.0 -57.4 -58.0 -59.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 2 1 5 3 5 3 5 4 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 42 45 45 44 45 46 48 53 55 53 48 50 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 44 52 62 88 99 106 78 36 13 4 -37 -69 200 MB DIV 26 18 16 40 36 34 28 17 30 51 16 11 -41 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -1 0 -1 0 -1 1 2 0 5 0 1 LAND (KM) 190 187 182 166 150 140 97 91 151 281 404 435 450 LAT (DEG N) 32.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 2 1 4 7 7 8 8 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 756 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -4. -8. -14. -18. -19. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 21. 23. 24. 26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 18. 15. 12. 9. 7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012012 ALBERTO 05/19/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012012 ALBERTO 05/19/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012012 ALBERTO 05/19/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)