* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012012 05/20/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 55 56 58 60 61 60 59 58 54 49 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 55 56 58 60 61 60 59 58 54 49 V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 55 56 56 57 58 60 60 59 56 52 50 Storm Type EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 40 33 23 30 27 23 18 27 35 29 16 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 -1 -5 -5 -8 -5 -7 -2 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 238 249 240 240 255 258 253 249 244 246 260 5 32 SST (C) 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.7 24.6 24.2 24.2 23.5 22.9 22.0 18.3 11.7 8.3 POT. INT. (KT) 100 99 99 99 98 96 98 94 91 87 75 66 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 84 83 83 83 82 82 84 82 80 77 69 64 63 200 MB T (C) -57.0 -56.6 -56.4 -55.3 -54.5 -54.5 -55.1 -55.9 -56.7 -57.4 -57.7 -58.9 -59.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 1 5 6 3 7 4 6 3 4 1 0 700-500 MB RH 45 44 43 45 41 47 51 55 56 55 46 42 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 56 78 94 106 95 77 27 20 14 -15 -84 -148 200 MB DIV 30 -3 33 25 34 24 8 18 44 14 -12 -32 -55 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -4 -6 0 -6 5 -1 2 2 5 LAND (KM) 164 165 168 160 153 100 80 76 122 259 268 176 175 LAT (DEG N) 32.1 32.0 31.8 31.8 31.7 32.2 33.2 34.1 35.0 36.5 38.6 40.4 42.1 LONG(DEG W) 78.1 78.3 78.4 78.7 78.9 79.0 78.1 76.5 74.7 72.9 71.3 69.2 66.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 4 7 8 9 11 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):227/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 12. 14. 17. 19. 22. 24. 27. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 4. -1. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012012 ALBERTO 05/20/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012012 ALBERTO 05/20/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012012 ALBERTO 05/20/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)