* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012012 05/20/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 44 44 42 39 36 34 32 31 31 30 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 44 44 42 39 36 34 32 31 31 30 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 46 46 46 46 45 44 44 44 44 43 45 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 35 28 37 43 42 42 42 45 52 48 27 13 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -2 -6 -5 -8 -4 -12 -9 -1 1 2 SHEAR DIR 260 269 261 273 272 260 254 243 236 234 252 249 359 SST (C) 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.4 24.3 24.3 24.4 23.3 22.4 22.0 17.3 14.3 12.0 POT. INT. (KT) 99 99 98 96 96 98 100 93 89 88 74 69 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 84 83 82 81 81 85 86 81 79 79 69 66 65 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -56.0 -55.3 -54.5 -54.1 -54.3 -55.4 -55.8 -56.5 -56.9 -57.6 -58.5 -59.7 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 4 5 4 6 4 7 4 4 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 44 44 42 40 42 49 54 56 58 55 47 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 5 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 62 94 84 70 62 30 28 21 30 -35 -64 -145 200 MB DIV 9 34 25 28 15 22 19 50 35 43 5 -14 -17 700-850 TADV 1 -4 -5 -10 -4 -4 -2 0 0 13 -2 5 2 LAND (KM) 153 160 167 158 144 105 109 91 162 336 368 346 337 LAT (DEG N) 31.8 31.6 31.4 31.4 31.4 32.2 33.2 34.3 35.6 37.1 38.8 40.4 41.9 LONG(DEG W) 78.7 79.0 79.2 79.4 79.6 78.9 77.3 75.7 74.1 71.6 68.3 65.1 61.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 2 2 7 9 9 11 14 15 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 762 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -8. -15. -22. -27. -28. -27. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 18. 20. 22. 25. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012012 ALBERTO 05/20/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012012 ALBERTO 05/20/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012012 ALBERTO 05/20/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)