* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012012 05/20/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 39 38 40 38 35 30 26 25 25 24 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 39 38 40 38 35 30 26 25 25 24 V (KT) LGE mod 40 39 38 38 39 40 41 41 40 38 37 39 41 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 28 30 32 34 40 38 49 54 54 33 24 12 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -5 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 -6 -4 2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 259 272 274 261 259 247 242 249 249 264 253 276 335 SST (C) 24.3 24.4 24.5 24.7 24.8 24.7 22.9 22.2 19.4 16.6 16.4 17.3 15.7 POT. INT. (KT) 97 96 98 101 103 104 93 89 77 70 69 72 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 80 83 86 89 91 83 79 70 65 65 66 65 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -54.6 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -55.2 -56.8 -57.6 -57.4 -57.4 -57.9 -58.5 -58.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 4 4 6 5 5 3 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 43 42 42 42 52 55 60 58 59 57 52 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 7 7 8 7 7 5 4 2 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 75 66 78 79 52 32 -1 -7 -44 -44 -95 -124 200 MB DIV 13 20 18 10 14 30 21 39 58 5 -24 -24 -49 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -5 -1 -11 6 -2 15 0 -1 4 2 LAND (KM) 135 144 153 183 182 173 146 325 363 382 456 413 437 LAT (DEG N) 31.1 31.0 30.9 31.2 31.5 32.8 35.1 36.9 38.3 39.0 39.4 40.0 40.9 LONG(DEG W) 79.9 79.9 79.8 79.3 78.7 76.8 74.4 71.9 69.6 67.6 65.9 63.8 61.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 1 3 6 8 13 14 12 10 7 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 783 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -4. -13. -21. -25. -26. -25. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 19. 22. 23. 26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -2. 0. -2. -5. -10. -14. -15. -15. -16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012012 ALBERTO 05/20/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012012 ALBERTO 05/20/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012012 ALBERTO 05/20/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)