* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022012 05/21/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 42 47 58 68 76 80 77 75 69 61 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 42 47 58 68 76 80 77 75 69 61 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 39 45 51 60 70 78 82 82 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 11 12 9 7 6 10 17 17 24 24 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 3 1 -1 -1 0 -3 -4 -5 -4 -6 1 SHEAR DIR 107 120 116 115 117 134 89 98 124 113 114 117 127 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.4 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 160 161 162 163 162 160 154 151 148 147 140 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.0 -52.6 -53.3 -52.3 -53.0 -51.7 -52.2 -50.9 -51.3 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 8 8 10 700-500 MB RH 77 77 76 75 77 74 71 68 63 59 57 52 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 12 12 13 15 14 14 11 6 850 MB ENV VOR 52 43 41 45 40 28 29 29 42 46 51 48 51 200 MB DIV 122 115 103 106 128 116 135 124 115 91 106 54 26 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 0 0 -2 0 -1 0 -2 -3 -2 0 LAND (KM) 757 760 764 743 724 679 678 632 559 479 427 325 196 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 4 6 5 5 5 6 5 4 3 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 35 37 39 43 58 74 76 51 33 31 29 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 11. 9. 9. 5. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 17. 28. 38. 46. 50. 47. 45. 39. 31. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022012 TWO 05/21/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022012 TWO 05/21/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##