* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012012 05/21/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 35 36 35 32 26 20 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 35 36 35 32 26 20 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 32 32 32 31 29 28 27 29 32 36 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 35 38 40 41 45 58 61 61 49 24 6 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -1 0 -3 -8 -17 -15 -13 -3 1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 266 258 258 253 250 244 253 252 255 266 359 80 64 SST (C) 24.9 25.0 25.2 25.2 24.9 23.3 22.5 18.9 17.9 16.3 13.5 11.2 6.9 POT. INT. (KT) 101 103 106 107 106 96 91 77 75 72 68 66 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 85 88 91 94 93 86 82 71 69 67 65 64 64 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -53.3 -54.1 -54.5 -55.5 -56.1 -56.2 -56.9 -57.7 -59.4 -60.5 -60.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 6 7 5 5 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 44 44 46 48 53 59 56 49 46 43 38 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 7 6 7 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 66 67 69 56 48 45 27 -32 -41 -86 -119 -122 200 MB DIV 24 6 -4 18 26 24 54 69 -7 -26 -42 -61 -43 700-850 TADV -1 -7 -4 2 -9 9 -3 15 -2 1 4 12 14 LAND (KM) 140 199 258 248 248 241 447 460 463 459 443 409 299 LAT (DEG N) 30.4 30.6 30.7 31.4 32.1 34.1 36.5 38.2 39.4 40.7 41.9 43.1 44.4 LONG(DEG W) 79.9 79.3 78.7 77.7 76.6 73.8 70.6 67.5 64.5 61.4 58.1 54.8 51.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 8 11 14 17 16 14 13 14 14 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):165/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 757 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. -6. -18. -28. -33. -32. -31. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 17. 21. 24. 28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. -3. -9. -15. -19. -20. -23. -26. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012012 ALBERTO 05/21/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012012 ALBERTO 05/21/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012012 ALBERTO 05/21/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)