* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022012 05/21/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 44 51 66 79 89 91 89 78 72 62 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 44 51 66 79 89 91 89 78 72 53 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 43 53 64 75 84 88 87 82 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 5 9 8 13 4 8 8 5 16 5 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -2 0 1 1 2 2 5 2 9 3 SHEAR DIR 89 82 71 66 73 74 119 75 119 170 165 150 136 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.5 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 161 162 163 163 160 156 154 153 148 144 143 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.4 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -50.6 -50.4 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 10 700-500 MB RH 77 75 75 76 75 74 70 70 69 70 64 61 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 13 14 17 19 22 22 22 16 14 8 850 MB ENV VOR 47 46 45 41 29 31 17 31 38 36 65 55 68 200 MB DIV 120 113 127 136 133 152 167 157 86 82 89 23 0 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 1 0 -4 0 -2 -3 -6 -2 LAND (KM) 772 757 744 716 691 641 565 508 449 347 186 65 -19 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.6 9.8 10.2 10.6 11.4 12.5 13.2 13.8 14.7 16.2 17.2 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 99.9 100.3 100.6 101.0 101.3 102.0 102.8 103.1 103.1 102.8 102.4 101.9 101.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 5 5 6 5 3 4 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 36 38 40 44 50 70 81 65 50 39 29 24 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 31. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 16. 16. 8. 5. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 21. 36. 49. 59. 61. 59. 48. 42. 32. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022012 TWO 05/21/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 125.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022012 TWO 05/21/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##