* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012012 05/21/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 39 39 36 29 25 22 19 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 39 39 39 36 29 25 22 19 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 35 34 33 31 30 32 35 38 DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT N/A SHEAR (KT) 39 40 42 45 46 60 57 51 23 7 10 6 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 0 -1 -2 -7 -11 -17 -7 -4 1 -2 2 N/A SHEAR DIR 259 261 252 247 243 250 251 261 262 301 105 12 N/A SST (C) 25.3 25.3 25.2 24.8 24.0 22.7 22.6 19.9 19.5 15.0 11.5 8.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 107 107 104 99 92 92 80 79 70 67 65 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 90 92 93 92 88 83 82 74 72 67 65 64 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.5 -54.6 -55.0 -55.4 -56.2 -56.7 -56.7 -57.9 -59.0 -60.2 -60.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 7 5 4 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 44 47 54 59 60 61 49 43 43 42 43 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 73 58 57 41 40 35 0 -31 -85 -73 -91 N/A 200 MB DIV 19 -2 18 27 38 62 60 34 0 -69 -52 -61 N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -5 0 -8 -5 17 -1 6 -5 3 0 16 N/A LAND (KM) 215 273 282 281 268 325 512 483 412 404 428 235 N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.4 30.8 31.1 31.9 32.6 34.4 36.6 38.4 40.1 41.6 43.0 44.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.1 78.3 77.5 76.4 75.3 72.6 69.7 66.7 63.5 60.2 56.5 52.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 10 12 13 15 16 15 15 15 16 16 N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. -6. -18. -25. -26. -25. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 9. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 21. 25. 28. 29. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -17. -21. -24. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 1. -6. -10. -13. -16. -19. -22. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012012 ALBERTO 05/21/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012012 ALBERTO 05/21/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012012 ALBERTO 05/21/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)