* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022012 05/21/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 44 50 66 84 87 86 81 71 58 47 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 44 50 66 84 87 86 81 71 58 40 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 38 46 55 65 71 72 69 63 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 8 11 14 11 7 11 5 12 16 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -4 -3 -2 0 0 0 5 3 6 3 4 SHEAR DIR 104 74 55 56 71 65 125 93 152 143 171 123 129 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.1 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 161 161 160 154 150 146 143 140 138 135 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 -51.9 -52.5 -50.8 -51.5 -50.5 -50.8 -50.1 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 7 7 8 7 9 8 700-500 MB RH 78 77 78 76 75 74 72 70 64 69 62 58 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 19 25 23 22 21 17 9 3 850 MB ENV VOR 43 46 37 27 31 37 33 47 46 45 46 68 49 200 MB DIV 127 135 139 138 136 184 163 150 47 94 46 13 -28 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 2 -3 -7 -10 -1 LAND (KM) 831 821 811 792 772 710 616 498 395 273 170 47 -76 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.3 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.6 12.7 13.9 15.0 16.1 16.9 17.9 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 100.7 101.1 101.5 102.2 102.9 104.0 104.5 104.7 104.8 104.5 104.0 103.5 103.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 37 39 41 51 68 77 59 32 25 18 14 9 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 27. 30. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 10. 13. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 18. 16. 16. 14. 8. -1. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 20. 36. 54. 57. 56. 51. 41. 28. 17. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022012 TWO 05/21/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 135.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022012 TWO 05/21/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##