* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012012 05/21/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 41 40 37 30 25 22 20 18 15 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 41 40 37 30 25 22 20 18 15 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 34 34 32 31 30 30 31 34 39 DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 42 45 48 49 56 57 56 38 18 3 9 9 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -3 -7 -8 -14 -14 -8 0 7 1 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 264 250 247 244 241 242 245 254 261 251 180 146 N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.2 24.7 24.0 23.3 22.7 22.1 18.3 17.4 12.7 9.5 7.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 107 103 99 94 92 89 76 74 68 66 65 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 93 93 90 87 84 82 79 70 69 65 64 64 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -54.1 -54.2 -54.8 -55.3 -56.3 -56.5 -57.0 -58.1 -59.2 -60.1 -60.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 49 52 57 58 62 57 48 42 38 35 41 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 7 6 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 73 47 45 42 25 33 -44 -94 -132 -139 -117 N/A 200 MB DIV 19 34 38 17 53 68 34 -14 -22 -44 -55 -28 N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -7 -7 5 -9 13 0 1 4 7 7 N/A LAND (KM) 293 299 310 285 269 375 468 426 348 335 367 168 N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.5 31.1 31.6 32.5 33.3 35.1 37.3 39.1 40.7 42.2 43.6 45.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.3 77.3 76.3 75.3 74.2 71.8 69.4 66.7 63.6 60.4 56.7 52.8 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 13 14 14 14 15 14 16 16 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -7. -18. -24. -25. -24. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 16. 21. 25. 28. 29. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -25. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. -5. -10. -13. -15. -17. -20. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012012 ALBERTO 05/21/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 48.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012012 ALBERTO 05/21/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012012 ALBERTO 05/21/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)