* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022012 05/21/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 45 52 69 78 84 79 76 65 56 48 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 45 52 69 78 84 79 76 65 48 34 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 36 39 47 56 64 68 67 63 50 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 10 11 10 7 5 5 7 12 9 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -4 -1 2 0 1 4 4 4 4 3 1 SHEAR DIR 73 55 66 77 79 102 107 175 189 176 144 141 157 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 161 162 160 156 151 147 145 141 138 138 138 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.1 -50.7 -50.5 -50.8 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 77 76 77 78 73 69 66 65 66 65 62 58 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 15 17 21 21 22 19 20 15 10 5 850 MB ENV VOR 39 32 18 23 35 32 38 46 38 49 43 60 32 200 MB DIV 115 122 132 115 152 182 157 98 91 61 26 3 -18 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 0 1 -1 -1 -1 0 -2 -5 -1 0 LAND (KM) 789 777 769 741 713 640 567 455 326 204 92 -46 -177 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.8 10.1 10.7 11.3 12.5 13.5 14.6 15.6 16.6 17.6 18.6 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 100.7 101.3 101.9 102.7 103.4 104.6 105.3 105.2 104.6 104.1 103.8 103.0 102.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 9 9 7 6 5 6 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 39 42 49 66 77 62 40 26 21 17 9 15 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 11. 14. 10. 11. 4. -2. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 15. 22. 39. 48. 54. 49. 46. 35. 26. 18. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022012 TWO 05/21/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 127.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 56% is 4.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 40% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 26% is 8.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022012 TWO 05/21/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##