* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012012 05/22/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 33 34 33 28 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 33 34 33 28 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 26 25 23 21 20 20 22 26 32 DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 47 48 57 61 60 60 53 37 16 9 10 6 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -6 -9 -11 -16 -12 -8 0 3 -1 -2 N/A SHEAR DIR 251 245 243 243 244 243 247 256 260 172 192 267 N/A SST (C) 25.2 24.6 24.0 23.2 22.6 22.7 20.1 18.6 14.4 9.9 8.3 4.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 102 99 94 91 92 81 77 69 66 66 65 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 92 89 87 85 82 82 74 71 66 64 64 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -54.2 -54.4 -54.9 -55.6 -56.1 -55.9 -57.2 -57.9 -59.6 -60.3 -60.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 5 5 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 50 57 59 60 64 54 43 38 35 37 37 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 53 40 32 35 27 8 -33 -85 -79 -108 -114 N/A 200 MB DIV 54 41 31 52 73 70 24 -8 -49 -19 -45 -8 N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -11 -10 8 10 -3 7 -11 -5 -2 1 10 N/A LAND (KM) 341 341 333 305 326 513 465 388 366 350 222 271 N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.7 31.4 32.0 33.0 34.0 36.0 38.2 40.1 41.7 43.3 44.7 46.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.1 76.2 75.2 74.0 72.8 70.1 67.4 64.4 61.1 57.6 53.8 49.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 12 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 16 17 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 11 CX,CY: 11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 4. -5. -18. -24. -26. -25. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 16. 20. 25. 28. 29. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -19. -23. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. -2. -9. -14. -17. -17. -15. -17. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012012 ALBERTO 05/22/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 54.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012012 ALBERTO 05/22/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012012 ALBERTO 05/22/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)