* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022012 05/22/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 45 52 66 74 77 75 67 56 51 45 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 45 52 66 74 77 75 67 56 51 45 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 38 46 53 58 60 59 58 56 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 10 12 13 4 6 3 11 6 14 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 0 -1 2 -1 4 0 6 2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 40 59 82 74 83 122 146 202 152 149 137 141 113 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.1 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.9 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 162 162 159 154 149 146 144 142 140 140 145 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -51.9 -52.5 -51.1 -51.7 -50.8 -51.1 -50.3 -51.1 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 9 8 9 8 11 700-500 MB RH 74 76 77 71 72 71 67 66 66 62 62 59 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 15 17 18 20 21 23 21 18 11 9 5 850 MB ENV VOR 28 15 18 27 27 33 36 41 39 37 47 45 39 200 MB DIV 114 110 119 142 158 142 116 64 71 26 9 -6 5 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 -2 -5 -2 0 LAND (KM) 797 777 758 735 716 632 528 417 328 228 130 39 11 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 10.1 10.6 11.2 11.7 12.8 14.0 15.0 15.7 16.4 17.2 17.7 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 101.4 102.1 102.8 103.6 104.3 105.2 105.5 105.2 104.8 104.2 103.8 103.0 102.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 8 6 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 42 51 67 76 73 50 27 19 15 15 12 9 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 29. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 11. 14. 12. 7. -1. -4. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 15. 22. 36. 44. 47. 45. 37. 26. 21. 15. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022012 TWO 05/22/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 128.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 4.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 24% is 7.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022012 TWO 05/22/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##