* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012012 05/22/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 36 36 32 27 21 17 16 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 36 36 32 27 21 17 16 15 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 26 26 24 23 23 25 27 31 35 DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 48 51 62 57 56 56 40 16 4 4 8 4 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -11 -6 -10 -10 -7 -1 8 4 0 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 245 245 243 246 245 241 253 256 85 55 357 36 N/A SST (C) 24.6 23.6 22.8 22.4 22.7 21.5 18.3 15.5 10.3 8.3 5.3 6.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 97 92 90 92 86 76 71 66 65 65 65 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 91 87 83 81 82 78 70 67 65 64 64 64 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.7 -55.0 -55.4 -56.0 -56.1 -57.1 -58.1 -59.0 -60.2 -60.5 -60.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 53 59 59 62 57 46 39 37 36 39 36 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 64 53 44 35 43 -10 -56 -102 -104 -111 -116 N/A 200 MB DIV 54 32 49 63 54 46 -15 -37 -39 -44 -35 11 N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -15 -1 8 -11 6 -8 -16 -1 -4 8 25 N/A LAND (KM) 320 302 318 357 442 491 433 339 305 255 170 435 N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.6 32.5 33.4 34.5 35.6 37.5 39.6 41.4 43.0 44.5 45.9 47.5 N/A LONG(DEG W) 76.1 74.8 73.4 72.2 71.0 68.5 65.5 62.5 58.9 55.3 51.2 47.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 15 15 14 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 4. 5. 5. 5. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 8. 6. -2. -12. -16. -17. -16. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -15. -19. -24. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 2. -3. -9. -13. -14. -15. -16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012012 ALBERTO 05/22/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 54.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012012 ALBERTO 05/22/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012012 ALBERTO 05/22/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)